A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency
As the 2000 election so vividly showed, it is Electoral College standings rather than national popular votes that determine who becomes President. But current pre-election polls focus almost exclusively on the popular vote. Here we present a method by which pollsters can achieve both point estimates and margins of error for a presidential candidate's electoral-vote total. We use data from both the 2000 and 1988 elections to illustrate the approach. Moreover, we indicate that the sample sizes needed for reliable inferences are similar to those now used in popular-vote polling.
|Date of creation:||30 Aug 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/|
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.