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UK macroeconomic volatility and the term structure of interest rates


  • Peter Spencer


This paper uses a macro-finance model to examine the ability of the gilt market to predict fluctuations in macroeconomic volatility. The econometric model is a development of the standard ‘square root’ volatility model, but unlike the conventional term structure speci…cation it allows for separate volatility and in‡ation trends. It finds that although volatility and inflation trends move independently in the short run, they are cointegrated. Bond yields provide useful information about macroeconomic volatility, but a better indicator can be developed by combining this with macroeconomic information.

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  • Peter Spencer, "undated". "UK macroeconomic volatility and the term structure of interest rates," Discussion Papers 11/28, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:11/28

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kaplan, Todd, et al, 2002. "All-Pay Auctions with Variable Rewards," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 417-430, December.
    2. Michael R. Baye & Dan Kovenock & Casper G. Vries, 2005. "Comparative Analysis of Litigation Systems: An Auction-Theoretic Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 583-601, July.
    3. Bettina Klose & Dan Kovenock, 2015. "The all-pay auction with complete information and identity-dependent externalities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(1), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Hopkins Ed & Kornienko Tatiana, 2007. "Cross and Double Cross: Comparative Statics in First Price and All Pay Auctions," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Emiel Maasland & Sander Onderstal, 2007. "Auctions with Financial Externalities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(3), pages 551-574, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Spencer, Peter & Liu, Zhuoshi, 2010. "An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 667-680, March.

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