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Natural sampling and base-rate neglect

Author

Listed:
  • Betsch, Tilmann

    (Universität Heidelberg/ Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Biel, G. - M.

    (University of Heidelberg)

  • Eddelbuettel, C.

    (University of Heidelberg)

  • Mock, A.

    (University of Heidelberg)

Abstract

Using an analogue of the lawyer-and-engineer item (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973), we compared conditions in which base-rates were either presented as percentages (A), or frequencies (B), to conditions in which the natural sampling process was described additionally (C) or was directly experienced (D). We expected the likelihood of base-rate utilization to increase as the presentation approaches the process of natural sampling. Accordingly, results showed that the contingency of judgments on base-rates systematically increased across conditions A to D.

Suggested Citation

  • Betsch, Tilmann & Biel, G. - M. & Eddelbuettel, C. & Mock, A., 1997. "Natural sampling and base-rate neglect," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:98-05
    Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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