Overconfident but yet well-calibrated and underconfident: A research note on judgmental miscalibration and flawed self-assessment
The present paper addresses the question whether overconfidence is an individually stable phenomenon. A within-subjects design was used to investigate whether judgmental miscalibration also reflects tendency to make flawed self-assessments. While the former notion refers to the tendency of individuals to put unrealistic beliefs in their judgments, the latter concerns the tendency of individuals to make inaccurate evaluations of their abilities and performance. On the whole, the paper finds little support that those two tendencies should be related. Depending on the employed measurement, the participants were found to be simultaneously overconfident, well-calibrated, and underconfident.
|Date of creation:||30 Sep 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||* An earlier version of this working paper was presented at the 20th conference on Subjective Probability Utility and Decision-Making (SPUDM 20) which took place in Stockholm, August 2005. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB504, at the University of Mannheim is gratefully acknowledged. The paper has benefited from inspiring and stimulating talks with David Dunning, David Budescu, Denis Hilton, and Martin Weber. I also thank Adelson Piñón for helpful comments and insightful discussions.|
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