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Seasonality, Cointegration, and the Forecasting of Energy Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Clements, M.P.
  • Madlener, R.

Abstract

Much of the short-run movement in energy demand in the UK appears to be seasonal, and the contribution of long-run factors to short-run forecasts is slight. Nevertheless, using a variety of techniques, including a recently developed test that is applicable irrespective of the orders of integration of the data, we obtain a long-run income elasticity of demand of about one third, and we are unable to reject a zero price elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Clements, M.P. & Madlener, R., 1997. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and the Forecasting of Energy Demand," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 484, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:484
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    File URL: https://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/1995-1998/twerp484.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COINTEGRATION ; ENERGY ; SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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