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Determinanten der Firmen- und Branchenentwicklung in evolutorischen Modellen, Analyse eines Simulationsmodells (GERMAN)

Author

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  • Martin Bemmann

    (Technische Universität Dresden)

Abstract

Eine formale Analyse der Firmen- und Branchenentwicklung muß nicht auf so stark vereinfachenden und damit unrealistischen Annahmen zurückgreifen, wie dies in neoklassischen Modellen geschieht. Evolutorische Simulationsmodelle bieten sich hier als eine Alternative an. Sie gestatten eine realistischere Abbildung individueller Entscheidungsprozesse, Handlungsmöglichkeiten und -weisen und ermöglichen die Analyse der sich hieraus ergebenden Interaktionen heterogener Individuen auch über lange Zeiträume hinweg. Die Arbeit analysiert ein evolutorisches Simulationsmodell von WINTER (1984), welches auf den Arbeiten von NELSON und WINTER (1982) basiert, und behebt einige Inkonsistenzen des Modells. Das untersuchte Modell formalisiert die gegensätzlichen Wettbewerbskonzeptionen des frühen und des späten SCHUMPETERS. Beide Wettbewerbskonzeptionen beschäftigen sich mit den Wechselwirkungen von technischem Fortschritt und Marktstruktur. Im „unternehmerischen Modus“ des frühen Schumpeters werden Innovationen typischerweise von Außenseitern getätigt, und setzen sich durch rasche Verdrängung des Bestehenden durch („Prozeß der schöpferischen Zerstörung“). Im „routinierten Modus“ des späteren Schumpeters hingegen werden die ökonomischen und technischen Voraussetzungen für Innovationen betont. Dabei unterstellt Schumpeter ein hohes Maß an Planbarkeit im Innovationsprozeß und sieht hierbei insbesondere etablierte Großunternehmen im Vorteil. Beide Schumpeterschen Wettbewerbsmodi können innerhalb des einheitlichen Rahmens des Simulationsmodells von WINTER (1984) untersucht werden. Die beiden Modi unterscheiden sich dabei hinsichtlich der Kosten brancheninterner und der Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit branchenexterner F&E-Aktivitäten.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Bemmann, 2005. "Determinanten der Firmen- und Branchenentwicklung in evolutorischen Modellen, Analyse eines Simulationsmodells (GERMAN)," Industrial Organization 0509008, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0509008 Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 100. Der Quellcode des Simulationsprogramms kann vom Autor per Email angefordert werden.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nelson; Winter; evolutionary; simulation model;

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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