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Settore sommerso e politiche di emersione: un approccio stocastico


  • Margherita Scarlato

    (University Federico II of Naples)

  • Marisa Cenci

    (University of Roma Tre)


The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of uncertainty in shaping the decisions of firms in the underground economy. Following the option value approach, we present a dynamic model which captures (i) the irreversibility of riallocation decisions from the underground sector to the legal sector and (ii)the option value od delaying the riallocation decisions when stochastic shocks can change the net present returns in both the legal and the underground sectors. The model allow us to draw a number of interesting policy implications. Last we use the theoretical results to address the specific issues that arise in the case of the Mezzogiorno of Italy.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Scarlato & Marisa Cenci, 2004. "Settore sommerso e politiche di emersione: un approccio stocastico," GE, Growth, Math methods 0402003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:0402003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; to print on hp laserjet 1300; pages: 30 ; figures: 2 figures. 30 pages, pdf file

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Felice Arezzo, 2014. "Il lavoro irregolare nelle regioni italiane: un’analisi econometrica dal 1995 al 2008," RIVISTA DI ECONOMIA E STATISTICA DEL TERRITORIO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(1), pages 60-77.

    More about this item


    decision-making under uncertainty; stochastic programming; underground economy;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements


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