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Log-periodic power law bubbles in Latin-American and Asian markets and correlated anti-bubbles in Western stock markets: An empirical study

Author

Listed:
  • Anders Johansen

    (UCLA)

  • Didier Sornette

    (UCLA, CNRS)

Abstract

Twenty-two significant bubbles followed by large crashes or by severe corrections in the Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan, Hong-Kong, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, Philippine and Thai stock markets indices are identified and analysed for log-periodic signatures decorating an average power law acceleration. We find that log-periodic power laws adequately describe speculative bubbles on these emerging markets with very few exceptions and thus extend considerably the applicability of the proposed rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes which has previously been developed for the major financial markets in the world. This model is essentially controlled by a crash hazard rate becoming critical due to a collective imitative/herding behavior of traders. Furthermore, three of the bubbles are followed by a log-periodic ``anti-bubble'' previously documented for the decay of the Japanese Nikkei starting in Jan. 1990 and the price of Gold starting in Sept. 1980 thus rendering a qualitative symmetry of bubble and anti- bubble around the date of the peak of the market. A set of secondary western stock market indices (London, Sydney, Auckland, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Zurich) as well as the Hong-Kong stock market are also shown to exhibit well-correlated log-periodic power law anti-bubbles over a period 6-15 months triggered by a rash of crises on emerging markets in the early 1994. As the US market declined by no more than $10\%$ during the beginning of that period and quickly recovered, this suggests that these smaller stock western markets can ``phase lock'' (in a weak sense) not only because of the over-arching influence of Wall Street but also independently of the current trends on Wall Street due to other influences.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Johansen & Didier Sornette, 1999. "Log-periodic power law bubbles in Latin-American and Asian markets and correlated anti-bubbles in Western stock markets: An empirical study," Finance 9907004, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9907004
    Note: Type of Document - pdf-file; prepared on Linux; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 36 ; figures: included. Paper submitted to Journal of Risk
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    Cited by:

    1. Sindhuja Ranganathan & Mikko Kivela & Juho Kanniainen, 2017. "Dynamics of Investor Spanning Trees Around Dot-Com Bubble," Papers 1708.04430, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market bubbles and crashes; emerging markets; log-periodic power laws;

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics

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