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Prévisions de résultat et réactions : étude de deux sous- réactions sous l’angle du biais d’ancrage

Listed author(s):
  • Michael Kaestner

    (GESEM Montpellier University)

Registered author(s):

    Les travaux en finance comportementale tentent, depuis quelques années, d'expliquer certaines des anomalies constatées, en abandonnant l'idée de rationalité de l'investisseur, pourtant centrale à l'hypothèse d'efficience des marchés. Cette étude, menée sur les entreprises américaines cotées sur la période 1983-1999, vise à montrer qu'à la fois la analystes financiers et les investisseurs sont victimes du biais d'ancrage. Ce biais conduit à une prise en compte insuffisante de l'information nouvelle au détriment de l'information passée. Les résultats confirment dans un premier temps que les analystes sont victimes d'un biais d'ancrage aux bénéfices précédents. Dans un second temps, nous avons pu établir que les investisseurs ne parviennent pas à corriger ces erreurs de prévision mais se fondent sur des anticipations encore plus conservatrices. A l'instar des analystes financiers, cette attitude conservatrice est fonction des bénéfices antérieurs, ce qui indique également l'existence d'un biais d'ancrage.

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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/fin/papers/0510/0510002.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0510002.

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    Length: 34 pages
    Date of creation: 03 Oct 2005
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0510002
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 34
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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