Risk-based Selection of Forest Regeneration Methods
A stochastic optimization model is developed to make a selection between the planting method and the seed-tree method, taking into account the uncertainty of, and the legal requirement on, the stocking level of the established seedlings in a given year after regeneration action. Uncertainty is quantified as the variation of the mortality rate of planted seedlings for the planting method, and as the prediction error for the seed-tree method. The objective of the forest landowner is assumed to maximize the expected net present value (NPV). Numerical simulations show that the owner should prefer the seed-tree method to the planting method for Scots pine stand. However, if the risk-free selection model is used, it overestimates the expected NPV by about 2\%. Sensitivity analysis shows that a less restrictive forest act could improve the expected net present value both for the planting method and the seed-tree method. Sensitivity analysis also shows that decreasing the level of variation of the mortality rate (or prediction error) increases the expected NPV.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg|
Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir97069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.