IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Risk-based Selection of Forest Regeneration Methods

  • W. Zhou
Registered author(s):

    A stochastic optimization model is developed to make a selection between the planting method and the seed-tree method, taking into account the uncertainty of, and the legal requirement on, the stocking level of the established seedlings in a given year after regeneration action. Uncertainty is quantified as the variation of the mortality rate of planted seedlings for the planting method, and as the prediction error for the seed-tree method. The objective of the forest landowner is assumed to maximize the expected net present value (NPV). Numerical simulations show that the owner should prefer the seed-tree method to the planting method for Scots pine stand. However, if the risk-free selection model is used, it overestimates the expected NPV by about 2\%. Sensitivity analysis shows that a less restrictive forest act could improve the expected net present value both for the planting method and the seed-tree method. Sensitivity analysis also shows that decreasing the level of variation of the mortality rate (or prediction error) increases the expected NPV.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-97-069.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-97-069.ps
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir97069.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Oct 1997
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir97069
    Contact details of provider: Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg
    Phone: +43-2236-807-0
    Fax: +43-2236-71313
    Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.htmlEmail:


    More information through EDIRC

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir97069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.