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Modeling Indeterminacy in Decision Situations

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  • L. Ekenberg
  • J. Thorbioernson

Abstract

We present theoretical foundations and computational procedures of a theory for analyzing decisions under risk, when the available information is vague and imprecise. The impreciseness is expressed by a set of global distributions T over a set of space S, where the latter represents the classes of all probability and utility measures over a set of discrete outcomes. We show how local distributions, i.e. distributions over projections of S on various subspaces of S, can be derived from T and introduce consistency measures expressing the extent into which user-asserted local distributions can be used for defining T. The evaluation model used is based on the expected utility, but this is not a necessary restriction. The approach allows a decision maker to be as deliberately imprecise as she feels natural, as well as provide her with the means for expressing varying degrees of imprecision in the input sentences.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Ekenberg & J. Thorbioernson, 1997. "Modeling Indeterminacy in Decision Situations," Working Papers ir97044, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir97044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Ruszczynski, Andrzej, 1999. "From stochastic dominance to mean-risk models: Semideviations as risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 33-50, July.
    2. Haim Levy, 1992. "Stochastic Dominance and Expected Utility: Survey and Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 555-593, April.
    3. Porter, R Burr, 1974. "Semivariance and Stochastic Dominance: A Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 200-204, March.
    4. G. Hanoch & H. Levy, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 335-346.
    5. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
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