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Information, Adaptive Contracting, and Distributional Dynamics: Bayesian Choice, Bose-Einstein Statistics and the Movies"

  • Arthur DeVany

    (Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, UCI.)

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    Audiences discover what movies they like and spread the word. Information feedback produces Bose-Einstein dynamics in the motion picture box office revenue distribution. Information cascades generate box office `hits' (superstars) and `flops' (antistars). The revenue distribution evolves recursively over the `run' as a mixture of the `opening' and a stochastic competition among films. The motion picture run is decentralized, adaptive, and self- organizing: semi-stationary admission prices, local information, and contingency-rich contracts match the film rental price and the supply of theatrical engagements to demand.

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    Paper provided by University of California at Los Angeles, Center for Computable Economics in its series Working Papers with number _020.

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    Handle: RePEc:wop:callce:_020
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