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Information, Adaptive Contracting, and Distributional Dynamics: Bayesian Choice, Bose-Einstein Statistics and the Movies

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  • Arthur DeVany

    (Department of Economics and Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, UCI.)

Abstract

Audiences discover what movies they like and spread the word. Information feedback produces Bose-Einstein dynamics in the motion picture box office revenue distribution. Information cascades generate box office `hits' (superstars) and `flops' (antistars). The revenue distribution evolves recursively over the `run' as a mixture of the `opening' and a stochastic competition among films. The motion picture run is decentralized, adaptive, and self- organizing: semi-stationary admission prices, local information, and contingency-rich contracts match the film rental price and the supply of theatrical engagements to demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur DeVany, "undated". "Information, Adaptive Contracting, and Distributional Dynamics: Bayesian Choice, Bose-Einstein Statistics and the Movies," Working Papers _004, University of California at Los Angeles, Center for Computable Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:callce:_004
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    File URL: http://cce.sscnet.ucla.edu/papers/devany/infomovies/infmov.zip
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