IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Territorial Scenarios for an Integrated Europe: Driving Forces of Change and Quantitative Forecasts

Listed author(s):
  • Roberta Capello


  • Barbara Chizzolini


  • Ugo Fratesi


The paper presents the second step of an ambitious research project, which has the aim to provide territorial scenarios of the New Europe in 15 years, developed under different hypotheses on the most important driving forces of change in the fields of economy, demographic, society, technology and institutions. The first step was presented last year at the ERSA conference in Amsterdam. In that occasion, the paper dealt with the econometric model (labelled MASST – Macroeconomic, social, sectoral and territorial model) built for the forecasting activity, presenting its strengths and weaknesses and the main results obtained by the estimates of the model. In this paper the additional work is presented, and the main conceptual and methodological steps forward analysed. In particular, the aims of the paper are the following: - to present the main driving forces that influence the future of Europe and of its territory. These are of different nature: socio-cultural (future migration forces and future birth and death rates), institutional (deepening vs. widening of enlargement), macroeconomic (trend in the euro/$ exchange rate, trend in fiscal morality – i.e. trend in public debts, revision of the Maastricht parameters -, trend in interest rates, trend in inflation rate, geo-political orientation of FDI, rebalancing of external accounts of big emerging countries; increase in energy price), political (reforms of the structural funds and of the Community Agricultural Policy); - to present the different hypotheses under which the scenarios are built. The idea is to build three scenarios, a baseline scenario, a competitive and a cohesive scenario, and to present the differences among them; - to present the results of the simulation. The MASST model is able to provide both regional GDP growth rates and GDP levels, as well as regional population growth rates, and population levels, for the three scenarios. The model is able to provide the simulations for 27 Countries (the old 15 EU members, the new 10 Countries and Bulgaria and Romania) and for their 259 regions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Regional Science Association in its series ERSA conference papers with number ersa06p177.

in new window

Date of creation: Aug 2006
Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p177
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria

Web page:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gunther Maier)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.