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Modelling the seasonality of hotel nights in Denmark by county and nationality

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  • Nils Karl Sorensen

Abstract

The paper examines foreigners demand for hotel nights in Denmark by nationality using monthly time series covering nearly 30 years. Inbound hotel demand is assumed to depend on economic variables like the foreign and Danish CPI and the exchange rate, as well as variables measuring the climate. It is investigated weather the climate last year has a significant influence on this year demand for hotels. Further, the relative importance between economic and climatic variables are considered. Univariate as well as multivatiate ECM models are examined, and special attention is devoted to an evaluation of the forecast performance of the various models. Over time people''''s preferences have changes, and this implication for modelling demand is taken into account. Key words: Tourism, seasonality, forecasting, multivatiate estimation, cointegration. Theme: Tourism and regional development, econometrics.

Suggested Citation

  • Nils Karl Sorensen, 2001. "Modelling the seasonality of hotel nights in Denmark by county and nationality," ERSA conference papers ersa01p159, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa01p159
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    Cited by:

    1. Josep-Maria Espinet & Modest Fluvià & Ricard Rigall-I-Torrent & Albert Saló, 2012. "Hotel Characteristics and Seasonality in Prices: An Analysis Using Spanish Tour Operators' Brochures," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 749-767, August.
    2. Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Turrión Prats, Judith, 2018. "Tourism seasonality worldwide," Working Papers 2072/351586, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    3. Anna Serena Vergori, 2012. "Forecasting Tourism Demand: The Role of Seasonality," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 915-930, October.
    4. Tingzhen Chen & Philip L. Pearce, 2012. "Research Note: Seasonality Patterns in Asian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 1105-1115, October.

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