IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wis/wpaper/2505.html

Laffer Curves in Brazil: The Tax Evasion Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Frederico Alencar

    (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil)

  • Marcus Araripe

    (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil)

  • Marcelo Arbex

    (Department of Economics, University of Windsor)

  • Marcio V. Correa

    (CAEN - Graduate Studies in Economics, Federal University of Ceara, Brazil)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of tax evasion on the labor-income Laffer curve in Brazil. We develop a heterogeneous-agent model with incomplete markets, progressive taxation, and imperfect tax enforcement. Beyond the well-known arithmetic and economic effects, the model highlights a novel evasion effect - higher statutory rates induce greater concealment of income and reduce effective tax collections. Calibrated to Brazilian data, the model shows that the aggregate Laffer curve peaks at a marginal rate of 25.3%, below the current 27.5%. Tax evasion reduces potential revenue by up to 54% (3.1% of GDP), with losses concentrated among high-income households. A disaggregated analysis further reveals heterogeneous responses across income groups, underscoring distributional and policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Alencar & Marcus Araripe & Marcelo Arbex & Marcio V. Correa, 2025. "Laffer Curves in Brazil: The Tax Evasion Effect," Working Papers 2505, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wis:wpaper:2505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web2.uwindsor.ca/economics/RePEc/wis/pdf/2505.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2025
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Slemrod, Joel B, 1985. "An Empirical Test for Tax Evasion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 232-238, May.
    2. Hans A. Holter & Dirk Krueger & Serhiy Stepanchuk, 2019. "How do tax progressivity and household heterogeneity affect Laffer curves?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(4), pages 1317-1356, November.
    3. Barillas, Francisco & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus, 2007. "A generalization of the endogenous grid method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2698-2712, August.
    4. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    5. António A. Antunes & Tiago V. Cavalcanti, 2013. "The Welfare Gains Of Financial Liberalization: Capital Accumulation And Heterogeneity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(6), pages 1348-1381, December.
    6. Dabla-Norris, Era & Lima, Frederico, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of tax rate and base changes: Evidence from fiscal consolidations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Dhami, Sanjit & al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2007. "Why do people pay taxes? Prospect theory versus expected utility theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 171-192, September.
    8. Clotfelter, Charles T, 1983. "Tax Evasion and Tax Rates: An Analysis of Individual Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 363-373, August.
    9. Antunes, António & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Villamil, Anne, 2008. "Computing general equilibrium models with occupational choice and financial frictions," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 553-568, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthew D. Rablen, 2010. "Tax Evasion and Exchange Equity: A Reference-Dependent Approach," Public Finance Review, , vol. 38(3), pages 282-305, May.
    2. Bernasconi, Michele & Corazzini, Luca & Seri, Raffaello, 2014. "Reference dependent preferences, hedonic adaptation and tax evasion: Does the tax burden matter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 103-118.
    3. Michele Bernasconi, Luca Corazzini, Raffaello Seri, 2012. "Tax Evasion: Does the Tax Burden Matter?," ISLA Working Papers 43, ISLA, Centre for research on Latin American Studies and Transition Economies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. López, José Joaquín, 2017. "Financial frictions and productivity: Evidence from Mexico," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 294-301.
    5. James Alm, 2019. "What Motivates Tax Compliance?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 353-388, April.
    6. Michele Bernasconi & Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2020. "Dynamic Tax Evasion with Habit Formation in Consumption," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(3), pages 966-992, July.
    7. Denvil Duncan & Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2016. "Unequal inequalities: Do progressive taxes reduce income inequality?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(4), pages 762-783, August.
    8. Semjén, András, 2017. "Az adózói magatartás különféle magyarázatai [Various explanations for tax compliance]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 140-184.
    9. Berger, Melissa & Fellner-Röhling, Gerlinde & Sausgruber, Rupert & Traxler, Christian, 2016. "Higher taxes, more evasion? Evidence from border differentials in TV license fees," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 74-86.
    10. Sanjit Dhami & Narges Hajimoladarvish, 2020. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Tax Evasion: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8606, CESifo.
    11. Joseph G. Eisenhauer, 2006. "The Shadow Price of Morality," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 437-456, Summer.
    12. Fadi Alasfour, 2019. "Costs of Distrust: The Virtuous Cycle of Tax Compliance in Jordan," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 243-258, March.
    13. Laura Sour, 2004. "An Economic Model of Tax Compliance with Individual Morality and Group Conformity," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 43-61, January-J.
    14. Patrick Macnamara & Myroslav Pidkuyko & Raffaele Rossi, 2022. "Taxing Consumption in Unequal Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2210, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. James Alm, 2012. "Measuring, explaining, and controlling tax evasion: lessons from theory, experiments, and field studies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 54-77, February.
    16. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2012. "Income risk, macroeconomic and demographic change, and economic inequality in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-84.
    17. Egidijus Bikas & Rolandas Sakalauskas, 2020. "Taxpayer?s Behavior in the Changing Tax Policy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 23-38, December.
    18. Jazmín González Aguirre & Alberto Del Villar, 2021. "Administrative Costs and Tariff Rates in the Presence of Customs Evasion: Evidence from Ecuador," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Chunzan Wu & Dirk Krueger, 2018. "How Much Consumption Insurance in Bewley Models with Endogenous Family Labor Supply?," NBER Working Papers 24472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Keyvan Eslami & Thomas Phelan, 2025. "The Art of Temporal Approximation: An Investigation into Numerical Solutions to Discrete- and Continuous-Time Problems in Economics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1505-1547, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wis:wpaper:2505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Trudeau (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dwindca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.