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Serbia’s economy under Vučić: Far from a miracle

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Abstract

This note assesses Serbia’s economic performance under the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which has governed the country since 2012, ahead of the parliamentary elections to be held on 25 October 2026. It compares the SNS years with the 2001-2011 period and with other economies in the region. Average annual growth in Serbia during the 2012-2025 period was 2.4%, against 4.2% in the previous decade, and lower than in most neighbouring countries. Unemployment has fallen, but employment has stagnated since 2019, and most wage gains have been absorbed by higher living costs. Inequality has increased, while social protection spending has declined. FDI inflows have been no higher than before, and the income earned by foreign investors now exceeds new inflows. Public investment has risen strongly but has been concentrated on motorways, while other infrastructure has fallen further behind the EU average and domestic private investment has stagnated. The record is far from the economic miracle often claimed.

Suggested Citation

  • Branimir Jovanović, 2026. "Serbia’s economy under Vučić: Far from a miracle," wiiw Policy Notes 113, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:113
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    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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