Security trumps economics: Prospects for EU-Japan cooperation in times of geopolitical instability

This paper argues that the European Union (EU) and Japan face a converging security agenda in which economic, technological, and military vulnerabilities can no longer be addressed separately. The principal challenges are the weaponisation of trade, finance, energy, and supply chains; the intensifying US-China rivalry; Russia’s aggression and its wider destabilising effects; China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific; critical dependencies in raw materials, semiconductors, digital infrastructure, and renewable technologies; and uncertainty over the reliability of established alliance structures due to current US unpredictability. These pressures expose the limits of economic power when it is not supported by credible defence, cyber, space, intelligence, and industrial capabilities. At the same time, they create opportunities for the EU and Japan to jointly upgrade their partnership from trade and regulatory cooperation to comprehensive security governance. Existing agreements, partnerships, and associations, as well as cooperation on critical raw materials and semiconductors, provide a platform for action. Policy priorities should include faster strategic coordination; closer industry participation; more resilient supply chains; defence-industrial cooperation; joint work on dual-use technologies as well as cyber and space security; and coordination with responsible partners, such as India, ASEAN countries, Australia, and Canada. By linking resilience, deterrence, and rules-based multilateralism, the EU and Japan can strengthen their strategic room for manoeuvre become credible security partners – and therefore be at the table and not on the menu.