The illiberal economy: The long-term development of the Hungarian economy under Viktor Orbán

This assessment provides a long-term analysis of Hungary’s economic trajectory under the administration of Viktor Orbán since 2010. Taking the start of the European financial crisis in 2009 as a baseline, it evaluates the impact of ‘Orbánomics’ – a policy mix defined by deterioration in institutional quality, state intervention and sectoral taxation for the creation of a nationalist, capitalist class, and an ‘Eastern Opening’ strategy to diversify away from the European Union. Through a comparative lens that focuses on the region of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE), the study finds that Hungary has transitioned away from being a regional front-runner to languishing in the midfield. Key findings highlight a widening 7 percentage point GDP growth gap relative to the CESEE average, a significant slowdown in convergence toward the ‘Austrian Benchmark’, compared to peers like Croatia and Romania, and a regressive shift in sectoral specialisation from high-innovation ICT toward low-complexity real estate. Furthermore, the analysis underscores the severe ‘institutional tax’ resulting from deteriorating governance scores and the subsequent withholding of EU transfers, such as the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). The study concludes that without urgent political and economic reform and institutional reconciliation, Hungary risks permanent entrenchment in a nationalist development trap.