Monthly Report No. 9/2021

Chart of the month A fourth wave of COVID-19 taking a grip by Olga Pindyuk Opinion Corner Ostracism is a painful side effect of the Western sanctions on Belarus by Rumen Dobrinsky Following the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in May 2021, Western states imposed harsh economic sanctions on Belarus. For the first time, these included sanctions that targeted specific Belarusian industries and businesses, while Belarus’s access to international financial markets was further restricted. The sanctions also hurt ordinary Belarusians, due to the restrictions imposed on air traffic. These measures can be expected to trigger Belarus’s further orientation towards Russia. Searching for a new growth model in the Visegrád countries by Leon Podkaminer Although the Visegrád countries have done fairly well in recent decades, their current growth model is reaching its limits. A reliance on foreign direct investment-led export growth, especially based largely on cheap labour, does not seem likely to deliver an acceptable amount of convergence in coming years. This is even less likely under the currently restrictive fiscal framework, the recent (temporary) relaxation notwithstanding. A real breakthrough may require a radical overhaul of the basic economic paradigms at the EU level. The Georgian economy caught between Russia and the EU by Vasily Astrov The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU has so far brought Georgia few economic benefits. There has been little trade reorientation, and sizeable inflows of foreign trade investment into the productive sector have failed to materialise. Given that membership of NATO and the EU is unrealistic for Georgia in the foreseeable future, a conceivable alternative could be a neutral political status. That could allow Georgia to benefit from increased trade links with Russia, without sacrificing its ostensibly pro-European economic policy course. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe