Monthly Report No. 04/2020

Chart of the month COVID-19 measures and mobility responses in CESEE countries by Julia Grübler Opinion Corner Three decades of successful post-socialist transformation, and what next? A programme for Poland by Grzegorz W. Kolodko This note argues that economic and social policy in Poland should go beyond a mere maximising of GDP growth and target a wide range of areas, such as consumer protection, investments in human capital, the quality of environment, demographic decline, sustainability of the pension system, and a more socially-oriented taxation system. New oil counter-shock advent of uncertainties by Andrei Belyi The current slump in oil prices is a reflection of fundamental uncertainties and, unlike previous such episodes, will do little to boost economic growth. Its effect on oil-producing countries is likely to be asymmetric, with Russia lagging behind OPEC in terms of the competitiveness of its oil industry. The era of low oil prices does not bode well for energy transition, as incentives for this will be greatly diminished and cash-strapped budgets will be in need of excise taxes on oil products. Challenges of reintegrating Donbas into Ukraine what role for foreign assistance? by Peter Havlik The conflict in Donbas that has just marked its sixth anniversary is having a significant impact on the whole of Ukraine. In contrast to the unprecedented scale of international assistance provided to Ukraine so far, the engagement of the private sector has been disappointing. A ‘freezing’ of the conflict – mediated by the conflict parties with international support – would be an important step towards curtailing human suffering and mitigating the costs of economic reconstruction. The coronavirus crisis is driving Donbas into the Russian-managed space. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe