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Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl
  • Julia Bock-Schappelwein
  • Christian Glocker

    (WIFO)

  • Serguei Kaniovski

Abstract

Die aktuelle Auswertung des WWWI deutet auf eine zunehmende Abschwächung der Konjunkturerholung hin: Im Monatsdurchschnitt sank der Indikator im Oktober leicht (–3,5%). Unter Berücksichtigung der behördlichen Einschränkungen (zweiter Lockdown ab 3. November 2020 mit Verschärfung ab 17. November) ergibt die auf dem WWWI aufbauende Einschätzung für das gesamte Jahr 2020 einen Rückgang des BIP von 8%. Die Modellberechnungen für das Jahr 2020 aus dem Cluster dynamischer Faktormodelle (CDFM) ergeben eine ähnliche Größenordnung. Neben entstehungs- und verwendungsseitigen Komponenten der VGR enthält das Modell auch eine Echtzeiteinschätzung für die Verteilungsseite.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Hochfrequenzkonjunkturanalyse bis Mitte November 2020," WIFO Research Briefs 19, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2020:i:19
    Note: With English abstract.
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