IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chronic Moderate Inflation in Transition: The Tale of Hungary


  • Janos Vincze


In this study I examine two aspects of Hungarian inflation. with some reference to other CEFE. The first is the political economy dimension, the second the mechanics of price making Concerning the former topic I argue that the balance of payment or mercantilistic motive has been the single most important determinant of Hungarian macroeconomic policy. With respect to the second I elaborate on two (interrelated) issues: I make the claim that the nominal exchange rate is in fact a nominal anchor to inflation in a certain sense, and I try to clarify the role of relative price changes. The outcome of the Investigation has important consequences on disinflation policies. The political economy thesis implies that without reducing foreign debt to comfortable levels disinflation will be awkward in either a fixed or a flexible exchange rate regime. To achieve price stability, at least initially, targeting the nominal exchange rate seems to be the most viable alternative, though this should be done in a manner different from the current system of preanounced crawling bands. Relative price developments should be taken into account when numerical parameters are rendered to the policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Janos Vincze, 1998. "Chronic Moderate Inflation in Transition: The Tale of Hungary," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 176, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:1998-176

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Demougin, Dominique & Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1994. "Privatization, risk-taking, and the communist firm," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 203-231, October.
    2. Grosfeld, Irena & Roland, Gérard, 1995. "Defensive and Strategic Restructuring in Central European Enterprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 1997. "Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 177-210, April.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1994. "Transition in Poland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1169-1177, September.
    5. Susan J Linz & Gary Krueger, 1998. "Enterprise Restructuring in Russia's Transition Economy: Formal and Informal Mechanisms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 5-52, July.
    6. Bennett, John & Estrin, Saul & Hare, Paul, 1999. "Output and Exports in Transition Economies: A Labor Management Model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 295-317, June.
    7. Marc Duponcel, 1998. "Restructuring of food industries in the five Central and Eastern European front-runners towards EU membership (CEEC-5). A comparative review," CERT Discussion Papers 9806, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    8. Vickers, John, 1985. "Delegation and the Theory of the Firm," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 138-147, Supplemen.
    9. Fershtman, Chaim & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Equilibrium Incentives in Oligopoly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 927-940, December.
    10. Mathias Dewatripont & Gérard Roland, 1996. "Transition as a process of large-scale institutional change," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, May.
    11. Greg Shaffer & Stephen W. Salant, 1999. "Unequal Treatment of Identical Agents in Cournot Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 585-604, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:1998-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WDI). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.