IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wat/wpaper/26002.html

The Bounds of Algorithmic Collusion: Q-learning, Gradient Learning, and the Folk Theorem

Author

Listed:
  • Askenazi-Golan, Galit

    (Department of Mathematics, The London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Mergoni Cecchelli, Domenico

    (Department of Mathematics, The London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Plumb, Edward

    (Department of Mathematics, The London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Possnig, Clemens

    (School of Economics, University of Waterloo)

Abstract

We explore the behaviour emerging from learning agents repeatedly interacting strategically for a wide range of learning dynamics, including Q-learning, projected gradient, replicator and log-barrier dynamics. Going beyond the better understood classes of potential games and zero-sum games, we consider the setting of a general repeated game with finite recall under different forms of monitoring. We obtain a Folk Theorem-style result and characterise the set of payoff vectors that can be obtained by these dynamics, discovering a wide range of possibilities for the emergence of algorithmic collusion. Achieving this requires a novel technical approach, which, to the best of our knowledge, yields the first convergence result for multi-agent Q-learning algorithms in repeated games.

Suggested Citation

  • Askenazi-Golan, Galit & Mergoni Cecchelli, Domenico & Plumb, Edward & Possnig, Clemens, 2026. "The Bounds of Algorithmic Collusion: Q-learning, Gradient Learning, and the Folk Theorem," Working Papers 26002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:26002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10012/23583
    File Function: First version, 2026
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michihiro Kandori & Ichiro Obara, 2006. "Efficiency in Repeated Games Revisited: The Role of Private Strategies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(2), pages 499-519, March.
    2. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine & Satoru Takahashi, 2008. "Perfect public equilibrium when players are patient," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Drew Fudenberg & David K Levine (ed.), A Long-Run Collaboration On Long-Run Games, chapter 16, pages 345-367, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Emilio Calvano & Giacomo Calzolari & Vincenzo Denicolò & Sergio Pastorello, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3267-3297, October.
    4. Justin P. Johnson & Andrew Rhodes & Matthijs Wildenbeest, 2023. "Platform Design When Sellers Use Pricing Algorithms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1841-1879, September.
    5. Stephanie Assad & Robert Clark & Daniel Ershov & Lei Xu, 2020. "Algorithmic Pricing and Competition: Empirical Evidence from the German Retail Gasoline Market," Working Paper 1438, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Mertikopoulos, Panayotis & Sandholm, William H., 2018. "Riemannian game dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 315-364.
    7. Barlo, Mehmet & Carmona, Guilherme & Sabourian, Hamid, 2016. "Bounded memory Folk Theorem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 728-774.
    8. Swinkels Jeroen M., 1993. "Adjustment Dynamics and Rational Play in Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 455-484, July.
    9. Zach Y. Brown & Alexander MacKay, 2023. "Competition in Pricing Algorithms," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 109-156, May.
    10. Mailath, George J. & Morris, Stephen, 2002. "Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 189-228, January.
    11. Kreps, David M & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Sequential Equilibria," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 863-894, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Galit Askenazi-Golan & Domenico Mergoni Cecchelli & Edward Plumb & Clemens Possnig, 2024. "The Bounds of Algorithmic Collusion; $Q$-learning, Gradient Learning, and the Folk Theorem," Papers 2411.12725, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    2. Epivent, Andréa & Lambin, Xavier, 2024. "On algorithmic collusion and reward–punishment schemes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. John Asker & Chaim Fershtman & Ariel Pakes, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence design on pricing," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 276-304, March.
    4. Zexin Ye, 2025. "Algorithmic Collusion under Observed Demand Shocks," Papers 2502.15084, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    5. Marcel Wieting & Geza Sapi, 2021. "Algorithms in the Marketplace: An Empirical Analysis of Automated Pricing in E-Commerce," Working Papers 21-06, NET Institute.
    6. Bergemann, Dirk & Bonatti, Alessandro & Wu, Nicholas, 2025. "Bidding with budgets: Data-driven bid algorithms in digital advertising," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2009. "A limit characterization of belief-free equilibrium payoffs in repeated games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 802-824, March.
    8. Simon Martin & Alexander Rasch, 2022. "Collusion by Algorithm: The Role of Unobserved Actions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9629, CESifo.
    9. Martin, Simon & Rasch, Alexander, 2024. "Demand forecasting, signal precision, and collusion with hidden actions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Gonzalo Ballestero, 2021. "Collusion and Artificial Intelligence: A computational experiment with sequential pricing algorithms under stochastic costs," Young Researchers Working Papers 1, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.
    11. Hangcheng Zhao & Ron Berman, 2025. "Algorithmic Collusion of Pricing and Advertising on E-commerce Platforms," Papers 2508.08325, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    12. Hanspach, Philip & Sapi, Geza & Wieting, Marcel, 2024. "Algorithms in the marketplace: An empirical analysis of automated pricing in e-commerce," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Gillian K. Hadfield & Andrew Koh, 2025. "An Economy of AI Agents," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, pages 119-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Harrington, Joseph E., 2024. "The effect of demand variability on the adoption and design of a third party’s pricing algorithm," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    15. Fourberg, Niklas & Marques-Magalhaes, Katrin & Wiewiorra, Lukas, 2022. "They are among us: Pricing behavior of algorithms in the field," WIK Working Papers 6, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH, Bad Honnef.
    16. Yuichi Yamamoto, 2013. "Individual Learning and Cooperation in Noisy Repeated Games," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-038, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    17. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2023. "Pigouvian algorithmic platform design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 322-332.
    18. Cartea, Álvaro & Chang, Patrick & Penalva, José & Waldon, Harrison, 2026. "Algorithmic collusion and a folk theorem from learning with bounded rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1-21.
    19. Ivan Conjeaud, 2023. "Algorithmic collusion with endogenous exploration," Papers 2312.02644, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    20. Fourberg, Niklas & Marques Magalhaes, Katrin & Wiewiorra, Lukas, 2023. "They Are Among Us: Pricing Behavior of Algorithms in the Field," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 277958, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:26002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherri Anne Arsenault (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewatca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.