The Impact of Stochastic Convenience Yield on Long-term Forestry Investment Decisions
This paper investigates whether convenience yield is an important factor in determining optimal decisions for a forestry investment. The Kalman filter method is used to estimate three different models of lumber prices: a mean reverting model, a simple geometric Brownian motion and the two-factor price model due to Schwartz (1997). In the latter model there are two correlated stochastic factors: spot price and convenience yield. The two-factor model is shown to provide a reasonable fit of the term structure of lumber futures prices. The impact of convenience yield on a forestry investment decision is examined using the Schwartz (1997) long-term model which transforms the two-factor price model into a single factor model with a composite price. Using the long-term model an optimal harvesting problem is analyzed, which requires the numerical solution of an impulse control problem formulated as a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Variational Inequality. We compare the results for the long-term model to those from single-factor mean reverting and geometric Brownian motion models. The inclusion of convenience yield through the long-term model is found to have a significant impact on land value and optimal harvesting decisions.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2011|
|Date of revision:||Jan 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1|
Phone: (519) 888-4567 ext 33695
Fax: (519) 725-0530
Web page: http://economics.uwaterloo.ca/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:1101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Pat Gruber)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.