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Climate change narratives and first births in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Ewa Weychert

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
    University of Florence, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA))

  • Daniele Vignoli

    (University of Florence, Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications “G. Parenti” (DiSIA))

  • Anna Matysiak

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics, and Mechanics)

Abstract

This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-related media coverage is related to fertility behavior. We construct a novel index of climate news coverage using text mining and link it to individual-level longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society survey. Results show that high exposure to climate news is associated with a lower probability of first birth, but only among individuals who express strong pro-environmental attitudes. In contrast, political identity and perceived long-term climate risk do not significantly moderate this relationship. These findings suggest that climate news coverage, which we use as a proxy for climate change narratives, is associated with fertility in a non-uniform way, shaped by moral and emotional mechanisms linked to current environmental concern. This study highlights the role of media-driven imaginaries in shaping life course decisions and contributes new evidence on the demographic implications of climate change discourse.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Weychert & Daniele Vignoli & Anna Matysiak & Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska, 2026. "Climate change narratives and first births in the UK," Working Papers 2026-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2026-11
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/7361/0
    File Function: First version, 2026
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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