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Does Pair Trading Still Work During Extreme Events? A Comprehensive Empirical Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

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  • Yufei Sun

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of pairs trading strategies in the Chinese stock market across extreme market environments, including the Financial Crisis, Bull and Bear phases, and the COVID-19 period. Using a comprehensive stock dataset and incorporating transaction costs, we find that most portfolios deliver near-zero excess returns after costs. However, in volatile conditions—especially during the Financial Crisis—top-performing portfolios achieved monthly returns up to 156 basis points. The strategy underperforms in stable or bullish markets with fewer mean-reversion opportunities. COVID-19 introduced challenges that further reduced profitability. Results highlight the critical role of transaction costs and the importance of advanced pair selection methods, such as combining the Sum of Squared Deviations (SSD), Hurst exponent, and the Number of Zero Crossings (NZC), which consistently outperform traditional approaches. While generally unprofitable, pairs trading can succeed under specific market regimes, offering insights into risk management and strategy adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufei Sun, 2025. "Does Pair Trading Still Work During Extreme Events? A Comprehensive Empirical Evidence from Chinese Stock Market," Working Papers 2025-23, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-23
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/6166/0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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