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Lucas (1972), A Personal View from the Wrong Side of the Subsequent Fifty Years

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Abstract

Lucas (1972) was a paper that permanently changed the course of macroeconomics, even though its “money supply surprise†model lost its central place in the area within a decade because of empirical difficulties. However, Lucas’s novel methodology, based on clearing markets and rational expectations, still dominates orthodox macroeconomic theorising. An unfortunate side effect of this has been that, because mainstream models have no analytic room for money to play a key role in economic activity, the theoretical case for taking that role seriously was undermined just at the time when traditional monetarist macro-models were facing empirical problems. The consequences of all this for today’s monetary policy environment are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • David Laidler, 2021. "Lucas (1972), A Personal View from the Wrong Side of the Subsequent Fifty Years," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 20215, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:20215
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    File URL: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1841&context=economicsresrpt
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2023. "Money Growth and Inflation: A Quantile Sensitivity Approach," Papers 2308.05486, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lucas; neutral money; monetarism; Keynesianism; micro-foundations; clearing-markets; inflation; recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • N01 - Economic History - - General - - - Development of the Discipline: Historiographical; Sources and Methods

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