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Fiscal transfers and inflation: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Girish Bahal

    (Economics Discipline, Business School, University of Western Australia)

  • Anand Shrivastava

    (Azim Premji University, Bangalore, India)

Abstract

Controlling for monetary policy, government transfers are potentially inflationary. This, however, may not be true when the economy is demand-constrained. Using panel data of 17 Indian states over 30 years, we show that government transfers via welfare programs do not lead to inflation. For identification, we use a narrative shock series of transfer spending based on the introduction of new welfare programs. We re-examine the relationship between government transfers and inflation by studying whether the recent implementation of India’s public workfare program, NREGA, had aggregate price effects. Using the phase-wise implementation design of the program, we confirm the absence of any association between higher program coverage and price inflation.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Girish Bahal & Anand Shrivastava, 2020. "Fiscal transfers and inflation: Evidence from India," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 20-12, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:20-12
    Note: MD5 = 98eee92f1b64932860e4e0b05964f575
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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