The Referendum in Italy: A Reconstruction Based on Its Numbers

This paper examines the evolution of referendums in Italy, from the institutional referendum of 1946 to the consultations held in 2026, through a historical and quantitative analysis of electoral results. The study investigates trends in voter turnout, quorum attainment, voting preferences, the main issues submitted to popular consultation, and the role of referendum promoters, highlighting changes in the relationship between citizens, political institutions, and instruments of direct democracy. The findings reveal a progressive decline in participation in abrogative referendums, particularly since the 1990s. Of the 77 abrogative referendum questions examined, only 39 reached the required quorum, while average voter turnout declined from 60.9% before 2000 to 34.4% in the subsequent period. The analysis also suggests that the increasing frequency of consultations, the complexity of certain referendum questions, and the political instrumentalization of referendums have contributed to weakening their effectiveness and their capacity to mobilize citizens. The paper further highlights the contrast between the fundamental role played by referendums in shaping Italy's major civil, social, and institutional transformations and the growing difficulties faced by this instrument in influencing political decision-making. Overall, the study offers a critical reflection on the future of direct democracy in Italy, emphasizing the importance of restoring meaningful popular participation and strengthening the relevance of referendum outcomes within democratic processes.