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Detecting profit shifting in administrative data: A South African perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Amalitinga Abagna
  • Ronald B. Davies
  • Miroslav Palanský

Abstract

This paper develops a data-driven methodology for detecting potential profit shifting by multinational enterprises in South Africa. Drawing on detailed administrative tax and customs data, we construct a series of red-flag indicators based on firm-level profitability, intra-group transactions, and trade with tax haven jurisdictions. A firm is flagged only if it persistently reports profits below its industry average while exhibiting at least one additional red flag related to related-party debt, service payments, or haven-linked trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Amalitinga Abagna & Ronald B. Davies & Miroslav Palanský, 2026. "Detecting profit shifting in administrative data: A South African perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-43
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2026-43-detecting-profit-shifting-administrative-data.pdf
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