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Climate shocks, labour market dynamics and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative data tax

Author

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  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill
  • Yohannes Kefale Mogess
  • Yuvana Jaichand

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Yohannes Kefale Mogess & Yuvana Jaichand, 2026. "Climate shocks, labour market dynamics and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative data tax," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-42, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-42
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