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Forgiveness or loophole? evaluating the effect of Zambia's tax amnesty programme on compliance

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  • Jonathan Msoni

Abstract

This paper examines the efficacy of tax amnesty programmes in developing countries, using administrative tax data from Zambia. I assess the impact of the 2017 tax amnesty programme on compliance among small and medium-sized firms. I find that programme eligibility increases compliance on the extensive margin, raising the probability of reporting positive sales by 17-17.9 per cent and of making a tax payment by 16.5 per cent. However, the amnesty has no significant effect on reported sales or taxes paid on the intensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Msoni, 2026. "Forgiveness or loophole? evaluating the effect of Zambia's tax amnesty programme on compliance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-41, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-41
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Publications/Working-paper/PDF/wp2026-41-forgiveness-or-loophole-evaluating-effect-Zambias-tax-amnesty-programme-compliance.pdf
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