Does Federal Preclearance Make a Difference? Examining the Effects of Shelby on the Minority Voting Gap and Countermobilization

In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the Supreme Court suspended federal preclearance restrictions on changes to voting laws in several states with a history of racial or ethnic discrimination and disparities in voting. We analyze the impact of removing federal preclearance of state election reforms on minority voter turnout by estimating the triple difference in minority versus non-minority turnout in affected and unaffected states before and after Shelby. We employ data from the 2008-2024 Cooperative Election Study, which includes both validated voter turnout and registration, as well as several measures of political mobilization. We find no evidence that the end of federal preclearance has had detrimental effects on minority voter turnout or registration. We also show that revised federal preclearance procedures in the proposed John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act are not better targeted at states where minority voting retrogressed after Shelby. Finally, we do not find support for the hypothesis that countermobilization among minority voters mitigates or confounds what would otherwise have been an increase in the minority voting gap post-Shelby.