Admisión Temporaria en Uruguay: exploración en el corto y en el largo plazo mediante metodología de series de tiempo

Export promotion regimes are used worldwide, and have different formats. In Uruguay, the most widely used is the Temporary Admission (TA) regime. In this paper we aimed to identify the determinants of exports using TA from the point of view of both demand and production factors. Long-run models were estimated (using cointegration techniques) for total exports using TA inputs and for the sectors that intensively use this industrial policy: metal-mechanics, plastics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The results reveal the existence of positive relationships between exports and imports using the TA regime, which interact with the production factors hours worked and investment in machinery and equipment (or at least some of them). This shows that imports in TA play a relevant role in the long-term export dynamics. It was also found that both variables are jointly determined in the framework of the estimated cointegration relationships. The study of the short-run dynamics followed the general to specific approach and the Autometrics automatic modeling algorithm was applied, with the procedure of identifying extreme values and saturation breaks. The results show that imports provide relevant information for the prediction of exports, although the short-term dynamics seem to be mainly determined by other supply factors (industrial production and hours worked) and demand (level of activity of the main destinations).