Volatilidad cíclica y arquitectura financiera doméstica, un estudio histórico comparado : el caso de Uruguay y Nueva Zelanda
During the twentieth century Uruguay showed marked cyclical fluctuations. In particular, in the last decades Uruguay exhibited periods of significant growth which turned out not to be sustainable and ended in deep crises. In this paper we intend to help explain Uruguay’s cyclical volatility by comparing its evolution with New Zealand. We find that a long cycle (Kuznets’ like) accounts for Uruguay’s greater volatility relative to New Zealand. We argue that the characteristics of the financial architecture interacting with structural characteristics associated with the trade sector are related with the higher cyclical volatility that Uruguay exhibits relative to New Zealand. Following Fanelli (2006), we claim that the relation between institutional factors and volatility is bi-directional. The analysis suggests that there is a vicious circle between volatility and the weaknesses of the financial sector in Uruguay which does not appear to be present in New Zealand.
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