Crescimento econômico com restrição do balanço de pagamentos: os fluxos internacionais de capital representam uma alternativa para a superação do estrangulamento externo?

A pivotal concern in Economics is the need to understand the mechanics of the economic growth. According to the kaldorian approach, originally developed by Thirlwall (1979), open economies are subject to the dominant restriction that impacts the increase of the aggregate demand, which is the restriction of the balance of payments. To discuss this, in the first part of the paper is analyzed the need that an economy has to ascertain at all times the equilibrium of the balance of current accounts. And, in the second part is introduced the possibility of equilibrium through capital flows. The main argument points out that economic policies devoted to the promotion of growth, must aim at developing the structural basis of an economy to achieve the increase of the income elasticity of external demand through the domestic exports and the reduction of income elasticity of its import demand. This analysis points emphatically to the importance of industrial policies in emerging countries. And, despite the role played by international capital flows to correct balance of payments disequilibria in the current accounts, the paper argues, however, that the excessive openness to external capital flows may compromise the conduction of macroeconomic policies aimed at a sustainable growth.