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Evaluating Structural Models for the U.S. Short Rate Using EMM and Particle Filters

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  • Drew Creal
  • Ying Gu
  • Eric Zivot

Abstract

We combine the efficient method of moments with appropriate algorithms from the optimal filtering literature to study a collection of models for the U.S. short rate. Our models include two continuous-time stochastic volatility models and two regime switching models, which provided the best fit in previous work that examined a large collection of models. The continuous-time stochastic volatility models fall into the class of nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models for which we apply particle filtering and smoothing algorithms. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of the particle filter for continuous-time processes. Our analysis also provides an alternative and complementary approach to the reprojection technique of Gallant and Tauchen (1998) for studying the dynamics of volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Drew Creal & Ying Gu & Eric Zivot, 2006. "Evaluating Structural Models for the U.S. Short Rate Using EMM and Particle Filters," Working Papers UWEC-2006-18, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2006-18
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    File URL: http://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/research/Creal_Gu_Zivot_2006.pdf
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