A Markov Switching Model of Congressional Partisan Regimes
Studies of development and change in partisan fortunes in the US emphasize epochs of partisan stability, separated by critical events or turning points. A major empirical issue that has plagued the study of American political development is the estimation of the critical moments and durations of these partisan regimes. In this paper we introduce a fresh approach to the study of partisan regimes. Our method is based in the method of Markov switching, introduced by James Hamilton. We apply Hamilton’s approach to the size of party coalitions in the US House of Representatives from 1854 to the present. Our model assumes that the political system is either in a state of domination by one party or it is not (in which case the other party dominates). The Markov switching approach also yields estimated state probabilities that allow us to make inferences about periods of empirical party balance. Roughly speaking, when the Republicans constitute the dominant partisan coalition, they can expect to capture 60 percent of House seats in any given election. The Democrats can expect 59 percent when dominant. Our method also allows the estimation of critical transition points between Republican and Democratic partisan coalitions. The periods we identify as governed by a being Republican coalition are roughly 1860 through 1872, 1894 through 1906, and 1918 through 1928.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Box 353330, Seattle, WA 98193-3330|
Web page: http://www.econ.washington.edu/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2002-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Goldblatt)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.