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The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games

Author

Listed:
  • Tadgh Hegarty
  • Karl Whelan

Abstract

The support of home spectators is one of the contributing factors to the home advantage effect in sports matches. The Covid-19 pandemic led to European soccer matches being played without spectators. We show that betting markets adjusted swiftly to account for a reduced home advantage in both goal difference and the probability of a win. These adjustments proved accurate over a large sample of soccer matches subsequently played without spectators even though the earliest games appeared to suggest a much bigger change in home advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadgh Hegarty & Karl Whelan, 2022. "The Wisdom of No Crowds: The Reaction of Betting Markets to Lockdown Soccer Games," Working Papers 202213, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202213
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/12955
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General
    • Z21 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Industry Studies

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