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Análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en España

Author

Listed:
  • Ángel Vilariño Sanz

    (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

  • Nuria Alonso Gallo

    (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

  • David Trillo del Pozo

    (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

Abstract

Desde el inicio de 2010 el debate sobre el ajuste presupuestario y la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública se ha intensificado. Las posibilidades de crecimiento del sector público español están restringidas por el elevado monto de la deuda pública, en cuya evolución futura hay dos factores determinantes. El primero es el nivel de los tipos de interés que el Tesoro deberá pagar para colocar la deuda entre los inversores. El segundo es el saldo primario, que depende del crecimiento nominal de la economía y de las políticas fiscales que se apliquen el futuro. El trabajo trata de presentar la problemática de la sostenibilidad de la deuda en España estableciendo un modelo que vincule el crecimiento del PIB nominal con el saldo de la cuenta primaria de las AAPP y plantee diversos escenarios de la ratio Deuda/PIB a largo plazo coherente con las hipótesis establecidas.

Suggested Citation

  • Ángel Vilariño Sanz & Nuria Alonso Gallo & David Trillo del Pozo, 2020. "Análisis de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en España," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 2006, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:2006
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