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La sostenibilidad del déficit exterior de España

Listed author(s):
  • Vicente Donoso

    ()

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid,Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

  • Victor Martin

    ()

    (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales)

In this paper we analyze whether the Spanish current account deficit is sustainable or not. For this purpose we apply two different methodologies. First we test for stationarity of the Spanish current account. Second, we test for cointegration between exports and imports of goods and services. The results shows that the current account deficit is not sustainable for the period analyzed, although there are several differences between the results from both methodologies.El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo contrastar si el déficit exterior español es sostenible en el largo plazo o no. Para ello se emplean dos métodos distintos: el análisis de estacionariedad de la serie de saldo por cuenta corriente mediante la aplicación de tests de raíces unitarias y el contraste de existencia de una relación de largo plazo entre exportaciones de bienes y servicios y las importaciones de bienes y servicios incluidas las transferencias corrientes netas y el pago de intereses por la deuda externa. Los resultados, si bien existen diferencias entre ambas metodologías, parecen mostrar evidencia de no sostenibilidad del déficit exterior español.

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File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/10236/1/WP_01-10.pdf
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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales in its series Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales with number 1001.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1001
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