The monetary policy rules in EU-15: before and after the euro
The objective of this paper is to identify empirically the logic behind short-term interest rates setting of: 1) the monetary authorities of the 15 EU countries before the launch of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and 2) the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of the non-EMU participants since 1999. We find that the Taylor rule, based on the response to inflation and to the output gap, is a reasonable description of the interest rate setting for only a few economies. In addition, the foreign interest rate and the long-term interest rate are often crucial to explain short-term interest rate developments. On the contrary, the impact of other variables often proposed in the literature (exchange rates, monetary growth and asset prices) is negligible. The application of singleequation analysis to Euro area aggregate data to identify the ECB policy rule seems to suffer econometric deficiencies. Besides, we find some evidence indicating that the ECB considers also national information for its decision-making and consequently that the ECB interest-rate rule can be revealed in quasi-panel setting.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 34-93 581 1680
Fax: 34-93 581 2292
Web page: http://www.uab.cat/departament/economia-aplicada/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea0810. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Miquel Colobran)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.