Business Cycle Synchronization in the East Asian Economies
The paper examines the possibility of financial cooperation by investigating the business cycle synchronization among the eight core East Asian countries(China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand) using the logarithm of per capita real GDP data from 1994Q1 to 2005Q3. The paper employs the model of multivariate time series analysis developed by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993). The empirical study reveals that the per capita real GDP series in the region have 2 cointegration vectors in the long-run and 4 cofeature vectors in the short-run dynamics. In other words, the GDP series in the region share 6 common stochastic trends in the long run and 4 common business cycles in the short run. The result indicates that the East Asian countries satisfy an important precondition for creating the financial cooperation in the higher levels.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2007|
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