Prefecture-Level Spatio-temporal Analysis of Foreign Labour in Japan

The number of foreign workers in Japan has been growing rapidly in recent years, and this phenomenon is drawing more attention than ever. Prefecture-level data shows uneven distribution across the country, but few research has been done to explain this fact. In this thesis, We proposed a threshold spatio-temporal model and its estimation method based on existing spatial panel model, attempting to improve the goodness of fit and making the comparison of prefectures with different economic properties possible. Then using a series of data published by Japanese government, We fitted the threshold model and traditional panel models to examine the influential factors of foreign labours in Japan at prefecture level. After that, We interpreted the result based on preliminary researches. As a result, the threshold model is proved superior to the two classic models in this study. Judging from the fitted models, the existence of spatial effect is confirmed, and GPP is identified as a major factor of foreign labour; enrolled students, criminal offenses and number of hotel guests as minor factor because they only showed influence in certain regions.