"Improving Economic Statistics in order to Improve Economic Policy and Research: (6) Introduction and Guide" (in Japanese)

From February, 2014 to January, 2015, I published a series of five discussion papers (DPs) entitled "Improving Economic Statistics in order to Improve Economic Policy and Research". This is the sixth article in my series. The subtitles of the DPs have been "(1) An Invitation", "(2) IO Tables, SNA (GDP) Estimates, GDP Deflators, and Productivity Indexes", "(3) IO Tables, SNA Base-year Annual Estimates, and Healthcare, Educaton, and Governemnt Administration Sectors," "(4) An International Comparison with respect to 93SNA, Supply-Use Tables, Productivity Index, Deflators, and the Public Sector Output", and "(5）Diagnosis and Treatment --- 5W1H, the Statistical System, Rokumeikan After Half a Century, The Emperor in New Clothes". DP2 through DP5 flesh out some of the issues presented in the DP1. The DPs identify some of the principal problems in Japanese official economic statistics. They discuss how the government currently generates those numbers, and how it might begin to collect more helpful materials. DP5 examines the generation mechanism of the problems, and investigates the direction of appropriate policies. DP2 and DP3 investigate the availability and usefulness of several major sources of economic indices in service sectors: e.g., input-output tables (IO tables), GDP deflators, and productivity (growth) indexes. They conclude that the nominal GDP, GDP deflators and real GDP, GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and real productivity growth rate (both for the overall economy and for the individual sectors) depend fatally on unclear generation methods (both the statistical information on which they are based and the estimation methods). Relevant information simply is not disclosed. The DPs, several hundred pages in total, examine various issues most of which have rarely been discussed even among "experts." Observing over a year since the publication of DP5 the development of various factors and situations and responses from relevant parties, I create this Introduction and Guide for a wider audience. This is not a summary of the DPs. It is an Introduction for provoking in readers an interest in the seriousness of the problems involving Japanese economic statistics and the importance of countermeasures and their difficulties, and a Guide for encouraging steps toward exploring the reality of the problems and the effective countermeasures. It is a Guide, not a summary. Readers are expected to proceed to reading the DPs.