"Investment Wave, Vintage Spike and Productivity: Rethinking "Industrial Rationalization" in Postwar Japan"(in Japanese)
In the early 1950s, "industrial rationalization," i.e. renovation and modernization of industrial equipments became the focus of the industrial policy as well as the corporate strategy. In this paper, I explored its historical background and implication. Estimating the vintage of capital stock from 1916 to 1964, I found that the wave of investment during the war brought about a sharp spike in the time-series of the vintage. At the same time, equipment-level vintage data on the iron and steel industry indicate that the vintage distribution in 1949 had a spike reflecting the wartime investment wave. "Industrial rationalization" can be interpreted as a measure to prevent a potential surge of the average vintage due to the vintage spike caused by the wartime investment wave. Through an analysis of establishment-level data of steel-making, it was confirmed that increase of the vintage gave a substantial negative impact on labor productivity.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2008|
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