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Fiscal Beliefs & Narratives

Author

Listed:
  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Isabelle Salle

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Julien Pinter

    (University of Alicante)

Abstract

We conduct an experiment with educational content within a large-scale household survey on monetary finance. We identify prior narratives that respondents assign to this concept using open-ended questions analyzed with a large language model. Prior narratives are dominated by inflation concerns and ‘magic money’ views, with little reference to taxation. A central bank (CB) educational blogpost preceded by a short video clip on public finance robustly reduces support for monetary financing and shifts a broad set of related fiscal beliefs, including inflation concerns associated to this policy, support for fiscal discipline, and CB independence. These spillovers do not primarily operate through causal economic reasoning but may be suggestive of a broad application of a ‘fiscal seriousness’ mental model. Our findings indicate that CB communication can tackle even complex topics when it combines educational content with salient narrative framing that connects to existing beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Cars Hommes & Isabelle Salle & Julien Pinter, 2026. "Fiscal Beliefs & Narratives," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260031
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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