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Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Yannick van Etten

    (Tinbergen Institute)

  • Jan Magnus

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Tetsuya Matsubayashi

    (The University of Osaka)

Abstract

We study the possible increase of partisan polarization in the Netherlands over the period 1998--2023, in particular its relationship with the degree of urbanization, the so-called urban-rural divide. Using national election results at the municipal level and municipal characteristics, we show that urban-rural polarization has indeed increased. A novel aspect of our paper is the introduction of shocks as possible explanatory variables. The effect of a shock on polarization depends on the type of shock. An exterior shock tends to increase cohesion and lower polarization, but an interior shock leads to less cohesion and more polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick van Etten & Jan Magnus & Tetsuya Matsubayashi, 2025. "Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-056/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250056
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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