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The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022 to 2023

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  • James K. Galbraith

    (The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

This essay analyzes a few prominent Western assessments, both official and private, of the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and war effort. It seeks to understand the main goals of sanctions, alongside bases of fact and causal inference that underpin the consensus view that sanctions have been highly effective so far. Such understanding may then help to clarify the relationship between claims made by economist-observers outside Russia and those emerging from sources inside Russia - notably from economists associated with the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - which draw sharply different inferences from the same facts. We conclude that when applied to a large, resource-rich, technically proficient economy, after a period of shock and adjustments, sanctions are isomorphic to a strict policy of trade protection, industrial policy, and capital controls. These are policies that the Russian government could not plausibly have implemented, even in 2022, on its own initiative.

Suggested Citation

  • James K. Galbraith, 2023. "The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022 to 2023," Working Papers Series inetwp204, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    • Handle: RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp204
    DOI: 10.36687/inetwp204
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    Keywords

    Sanctions; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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